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A UKRAINIAN CONTRIBUTION Друк
Написав Коробов Владимир Кузьмич    Перегляди: 5443
Неділя, 13 грудня 2009, 18:27

 

 

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Korobov V. A Ukrainian contribution to the formationof the

common"Dniester/Nistru - Black Sea coast" economic macro-region //Moldova-Transnistria: Eforturi comune pentru un viitor prosper. Aspecte ecoonomice : Молдова-Приднестровье: Общими усилиями - к успешному будущему. Экономические аспекты: Moldova-Transdniestria: Working Together for a Prosperous Future.

Economic Aspects / colegiul de red.:Denis Matveev, Galina Selari, Elena Bobkova, Bianka Cseke.- Ch: "Cu drag" SRL, 2009.- С. 101-117.

 

 

 

 

A UKRAINIAN CONTRIBUTION TO THE FORMATION of

THE COMMON "DNIESTER/NISTRU - BLACK SEA COAST" ECONOMIC

MACRO-REGION

Ethnicities practically never coincide with economies.

Denis de Rougemont1

The economic integration of Moldova-Transdniestria would be an incomplete and insufficient way out of the current situation in the region. The economic idea of the region's revival is transborder by its nature and complementary to the idea of national revival. The achievement of competitiveness for Moldova-Transdniestria and the Ukrainian South depends on the creation of a common economic macro-region.

Ukraine has a considerable potential and prospects for the establishment of an efficient intellectual, economic and social basis for Transdniestrian settlement. The idea of the article is that the Ukrainian contribution to economic integration and settlement of the regional conflict could be realized by taking into account the experience of Europeanization, creation of Euroregions, and development of transborder cooperation - as part of a project to establish a natural Odessa Economic Macro-region. The article considers the advantages and shortcomings of Europeanizing the settlement of the Transdniestrian conflict, it argues for the innovative idea that economic integration appears to be the very link that is able to consolidate the whole Moldovan - Black Sea region. With this approach, the conglomerate and similar nature of the local communities, having as a common feature the interaction of globalism and traditionalism, will be preserved in the foreseeable future. The author formulates a number of toppriority recommendations for the implementation of his ideas: to update the legislation of MoldovaTransdniestria and Ukraine regulating transborder cooperation; to establish a common Information and Statistical Centre for Macro-Regional Development; to draw up a Transborder Economic Integration Strategy for 2008-2028; to establish a School of Regional Leadership to consolidate civil societies; to institute a Moldovan Economic Forum consolidating business elites.

***

According to experts competent in international processes, a mere transferred projection of the trends existing in the world cannot be helpful in the preparation of a correct forecast and prediction of the rate and direction of future development2. The content of the previous stage of development of the post-soviet territory was that new independent states formed on the basis of the disintegrated UssR within the soviet borders, "within the format" of the former soviet republics having their so-called "title nations". However this does not mean in any way that this "national structure" will successfully continue its existence in the 21st century. on the contrary, it is more likely that the future belongs to a Europe (and, maybe, even a world) of regions, which is the new reality of the new world order3.

An attentive researcher may find some important features of the new world order in such abnormal phenomena of international relations as the so-called unrecognized states. in this respect, the moldova-transdniestria conflict, on the one side of which there is an ethnic unitary state, while on the other - a social and territorial entity that is essentially based on the idea of multinationality and multiculturalism, is very significant. it is even more significant that both parties to the conflict have as a foundation a common history of the region, similar ethnic and national structure of the population and integrative culture. perhaps the viability of trandsniestria is based on the potential of similar transboundary ambivalent entities, which may become the future of the Black sea coast. The people living on the Black sea coast should integrate both ideas, i.e. national and transboundary ones, in order to reconcile them, to fill them with new quality and integrity on a higher level of development. nobody should conquer anyone, we - Ukrainians, Russians, moldovans, Romanians, Gagauz and Jews can find together some kind of synthesis of the leading ideas of the 21st century - the idea of national revival and the idea of formation of transboundary Euro-regions.

 

A close examination of the issue of transdniestrian conflict settlement results in the broadening of the settlement context: the matter in question is not a banal political reformatting of the space but the appearance of a new quality - a macro-region that organically includes the space of actual transboundary cooperation: Right Bank moldova, including Gagauzia, transdniestria and the Ukrainian Black sea coast. Formation of a common market, common communications, common style and way of life, harmonization of interests and interpenetration of cultures has been taking place here for many years and the time has come to acknowledge and understand this process. We could call the region "Dniester / Nistru", although the understanding of the nature of this region of some Ukrainian politicians already using this name differs from ours. perhaps, taking into account the value of odessa as a port, as well as a cultural and historical centre, this macro region could be called the "odessa macro-region". in the context of social, economic and cultural changes taking place in the new region, we bring up the issue of the role of the Ukrainian Black sea coast in the settlement of the transdniestrian conflict and the role of Ukraine in the creation of an intellectual, economic and social basis for this settlement. The systematic economic contribution of Ukraine can become a missing component for the settlement, the "fifth element" needed for peace and development in the region.

Economic Preconditions and Challenges for the Establishment of the odessa Macro Region as a foundation for Conflict Settlement

comparative characteristics of the economies of the Right Bank moldova, transdniestria and the Ukrainian Black sea coast show their complementarity and potential for symbiosis. The well-known Russian expert t.Guzenkova notes the agrarian orientation of the economy of the Republic of moldova and prevalence of the industrial sector in the economy of transdniestria4. According to the structure of their economies, the Ukrainian odessa and mykolaiv Regions are industrially agrarian, while Kherson Region is agrarian and industrial, with odessa Region being one of the most economically developed regions in Ukraine. However, the most important factor here is transit and the trading potential of the Ukrainian Black sea coast. This is the region where the major Black sea ports of Ukraine, such as odessa, ilichivsk, Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi, mykolaiv, Kherson and skadovsk are concentrated; the ports located on the Danube being Reni, izmayil, Vylkovo, Kiliya. Here are also located the pipeline of odessa-Brody and the developed network of rail roads and highways5. The agrarian Right Bank moldova, including Gagauzia, industrial transdniestria and transit and trading Black sea coast practically supplement each other.

The essential precondition for the formation of the odessa economic macro region is the transboundary nature of the Black sea coast countries6. Both Right Bank moldova and transdniestria, as well as the south of Ukraine are populated by transboundary ethnicities (minorities): Russians, Ukrainians, moldovans, Gagauz, Bulgarians, Jews, etc. similar ethnic components of population in these countries and regions bring forth a unique feeling of their affinity.

The creation of odessa (Dnister / nistru - Black sea coast) macro-region is also preconditioned by the Euroregion of "Lower Danube" already established in 1998 and including: odessa Region (Ukraine), the districts of cahul and cantemir (Republic of moldova) and the districts of Braila, Galati and tulcea (Romania). This Euroregion is established under the provisions of the European Framework convention on transboundary cooperation between territorial communities or Authorities.

During the period of 1993 to 2007, Ukraine participated in the creation of seven Euroregions involving nine administrative regions. in 2002, the interdepartmental commission on the Development of transboundary cooperation and Euroregions (which has not convened since 2003) was created with the program of Euroregions Development approved. However, in reality the Euroregions are not functional, which can be easily seen from the websites of the respective regional state administrations - they are filled with outdated information about ritualistic meetings of officials. Why doesn't transboundary cooperation develop, when it has such a huge economic potential? is this accidental?

The major circumstances negatively impacting the development of transboundary cooperation and those that can evidently impede creation of the integrated odessa macro region in the inter-stream area of the Dniester / nistru and Dnipro rivers as a form of economic integration of the regions and overcoming of the chronic regional transdniestrian conflict are described below.

The authorities in Kyiv are afraid to the point of panic of even a hint of separatism being well aware of the lack of a "reserve of sturdiness" in the Ukrainian state. This is the reason why the issue of federalization of Ukraine and of a territorial and administrative reform related to the modification of stalin's division of the country into oblasts (regions) has been excluded from the agenda. This is the reason why the outstanding leaders who actively supported the idea of federalization, often from opposite political positions (V. chornovol and E. Kushnarev), are out of the picture. This is the reason why Ukraine ended up "without Kuchma" who had developed the project of dividing Ukraine into 9 regions with their own parliaments and governments. This is the reason why stalin's oblasts had been renamed by the Kyiv theorists into "regions", which was just another attempt to "substitute the labels" on the old soviet institutions that had not changed their actual nature. And this is the reason why the heads of regions are not elected but are appointed by Kyiv officials from among those who can never become charismatic leaders and can never be elected by the population of the region. Kyiv authorities do not grant the right to develop real international transboundary relations to regional administrations and keep the monopoly of the center on foreign policy. Declaring its aspiration to the Europe of Regions, Ukraine, in fact, reproduces totalitarian centralization both in policy and economy. in policy this is manifested in the tabooing of whole branches (for example, transboundary cooperation), in economy, for example, that Kyiv, as capital, is one of the two donor regions along with Donbass. The reason is not that industry in Kyiv is like that in Donbass, but that "Kyiv is the moscow of today" - the place that artificially, using administrative leverage, concentrates financial flows and creates a "special economic zone" like it used to be in the UssR for moscow, where prices, salaries and the purchasing capacity of the hryvnia are higher than in the country as a whole. An invisible economic border has been created around Kyiv separating this showpiece of Ukraine from the miserable provinces. Kyiv allocates subventions to the Ukrainian regions at its own discretion, selling to the local elites and population a faulty and anti-market idea of their imaginary ‘unprofitability', ‘helplessness' and dependence on Kyiv. in regional administrations, the issues of transboundary cooperation are supervised by the offices for international relations, which exist from soviet times and whose task is not to develop transboundary cooperation but to emasculate it, bringing this cooperation down to the level of ceremonial meetings and signing of the soviet-type "protocols of intent". As an example, we can mention here that in the democratic Ukraine, the visiting of local authorities by foreigners without a special permission from the special services, which should be obtained several weeks before the visit, is still prohibited. Besides, it is necessary to prove in detail the need for such visits and to provide information on the visitors. (The author had a chance to come to know about this order of the cabinet of ministers when receiving a polish delegation in Kherson on 14-17.04.2008 with senator of the Republic of poland stanislav Gogach and professor of the Lublin catholic University slavomir partitsky being members of this delegation. The Deputy Head of the regional administration L. olenkovskaya refused to meet with the delegation explaining her refusal with this prohibition). it is clear that federalism and regionalism of the "soviet type" cannot serve as a structural model for modern Ukraine, while hushing up and negation of the European type of federalism and regionalism cannot be justified by any fears, and are just the way to retain a commonplace monopoly of the central power, i.e. the notorious "power vertical" that the outdated by nature and totalitarian by origin Ukrainian post-soviet nomenclature tries to defend.

All the following reasons for the insufficient development of transboundary cooperation given by modern experts and analysts result from the major reason stated above.

According to the authoritative magazine "nationalna bezpeka i oborona"* these reasons are as follows:

ƒ ambiguous nature of powers of local authorities and local governments with regard to transboundary cooperation;

ƒ insufficient state support (including financial) for the programs and projects of transboundary cooperation; slow rates of construction of border region infrastructure by the Ukrainian side;

ƒ poor involvement of entrepreneurial structures and those of the "third sector";

ƒ lack of horizontal communication;

ƒ limited reliable and comparative statistical information on the status and development of regions; insufficient level of presentation of Ukrainian regions in the EU countries;

ƒ insufficient quality of preparation and unclear orientation of regional cooperation projects submitted by Ukraine for consideration to the European commission. As a result, its representatives have understandable doubts regarding the obtainment of any value added within these projects and, consequently, their financial support7.

* Editor's note: meaning "national security and Defense" in Ukrainian

The recent accession of our neighbours into the schengen zone and the newly arisen difficulties with the obtainment of visas needed for visiting the neighbouring countries also does not promote the development of transboundary cooperation. today, we can draw an unquestioned conclusion that Ukrainian policy on transboundary cooperation mismatches the European norms and ideals and does not make use of the European experience of regionalism.

Both Ukraine and moldova have similar macroeconomic problems - a low level of inclusion of the economy in the process of economic globalization, lack of serious structural changes derived from involvement in European and global economic structures, as well as a low level of international competitiveness. At the same time, similarity of problems does not imply their sameness: Ukraine, nevertheless, is more advanced in its integration in the global economy, which is another argument in favour of its participation in the construction of the odessa transboundary macro-region. The attractiveness of the odessa macro-region can grow due to the increased performance of the region's economy, its higher involvement in the global division of labour and bigger share of high-tech industry.

The best known complex evaluation of the involvement of specific countries in the globalization processes is carried out within the Globalization index Rankings. This index takes into consideration: inclusion in global political processes (involvement in international organizations, number of diplomatic missions, etc.), development of global technologies (number of internet users, number of internet servers, etc.), individual international contacts (tourism, remittances from abroad, etc.) and the level of development of economic integration (trade, investments, etc.). According to this indicator, Ukraine is in the 42nd place, it is more engaged in the development of economic integration and less in the system of individual contacts, development of high technologies and global political processes8. moldova is not yet included in the list of evaluated states.

The future macro-region will face the problem of lagging behind on the subject of how it functions in global networks. According to the global networked Readiness index 2007-2008 rankings, Ukraine is only in the 70th place (3.69 points), while moldova is in the 96th place (3.21 points). The maximum score of 5.78 points belongs to Denmark, while the minimum one of 2.40 points - to chad9. This index includes the index of the use of networks and the index of development of opportunities. The index of the use of networks is scored on the basis of the following indicators: the number of internet users (per 100 persons), the number of mobile telecommunication users (per 100 persons), the number of internet users per one server, percentage of computers connected to the internet, availability of internet services. The index of development of opportunities includes availability of networks, policy of networks development, development of social networks and development of a network economy (e-government and e-commerce). corruption can become another severe problem of the macro-region. The international or-

ganization ‘transparency international'. estimates the corruption perceptions index (perception of corruption of the public sector by businesspeople and experts). According to its information for 2008, moldova was in the 109th place (2.9 points) and Ukraine - in the 134th (2.5). The assessments are based on a 10-point scale, where 10 points mean an absence of corruption, while 0 - its highest level10.

A common type of economic life and certain similarities in the economic behaviour of households can become a major precondition for the integration of the macro-region's economies. This can be explained by the similarity of geographical, climatic and socio-cultural life conditions of the population.

At the same time, there persists the issue of social and economic dependence of part of the population as a phenomenon of consciousness and economic behaviour of the Ukrainian and moldovan population. in spite of the fact that the Ukrainian, moldovan and transdniestrian societies have joined the global process of individualization of economic life, part of the population is nevertheless drawn to the old regime, which implies a narrower space of individual freedoms and minimal individual responsibility. There also persists the phenomenon of a mass "dependence" mentality due to the exchange of economic resources. in Ukraine, moldova and transdniestria politicians and representatives of the authorities frequently use the rhetoric of "redistribution". The dominant moods are those welcoming of greater social assistance programs.

Costs of the Policy of Restriction of Economic freedoms in the Region

For the idea of the odessa macro-region (Dniester / nistru - Black sea coast macro-region) to be successfully implemented, Ukraine should put into life a serious and systematic program of transboundary cooperation and, at least, to stop the attempts of holding an artificial policy of restriction of economic freedom of transdniestria that undermines the idea of economic integration of the region as a way to resolve and settle the regional conflict.

According to the most conservative estimates, the average annual foreign trade turnover of transdniestria makes about 770 mln dollars. more than 144 enterprises in the energy, mechanical engineering, metal working, iron and steel works, and other industries ensure foreign economic relations of the region with 59-70 countries11. The major transit of goods goes via Ukraine. This is the major prerequisite for the complementarity of regions within the odessa macro-region that can serve as a basis for conflict settlement. should economic integration be implemented as a way to settlement and should this be done in the situation of economic freedom instead of economic blockades and boycotts, Ukrainian transit can become a necessary component of the whole project. introduction of new customs rules (economic blockade of transdniestria) by Ukraine in march 2006 was a step taken against the economic interests of Ukraine and against the idea of economic integration of the macro-region. This decision coincided with signing with the UsA of the agreement on Ukraine's accession to the Wto and the cancellation of the Jackson-Vanik amendment limiting the flow of goods from Ukraine to the UsA since soviet times.

in the situation of a lack of transparency in the official Ukrainian authorities' policy in relation to moldova-transdniestria, the actual sum of economic losses incurred by Ukraine as a result of the introduction of the new customs rules (or economic blockade, according to the transdniestrian terminology) is unknown to the population of the Ukraine. similar hushing up of consequences of foreign policy steps caused an irreparable damage to the image of the "democratic" governments of the Ukraine. to estimate at least the number of zeroes in the amount of this damage we can note that the volume of goods imported from the Ukrainian frontier area is estimated at 270 mln dollars, the moldovan steel Works located in Ribnitsa alone in 2004 purchased raw materials from Ukraine for the sum over 50 mln dollars; every month moldovan steel Works purchase 100 thousand tons of scrap metal from the Ukraine. Every month, moldovan steel Works ship 85 thousand tons of rolled metal products via Ukrainian sea ports. The losses suffered by Ukraine from the introduction of the new customs rules can be possibly estimated at hundreds of millions of dollars12.

The railway incident of 2006, the main point of which was a unilateral termination of railway communication with transdniestria by Ukraine, also meant heavy losses for the Ukrainian enterprises and the state. Ukraine quickly overcame this anti-economic decision.

Ukraine has serious business interests in transdniestria. The overall segment of the Ukrainian business in transdniestria is of no less than 1 bln dollars a year13. However, the existence of business interests does not affect in any way the public operations of the business. in fact, these interests are in "kept in the dark" from public.

Restricting freedom of trade with transdniestria turned out to be a serious foreign policy mistake of Ukraine that entailed both enormous economic losses and political losses in the form of a self-removal by Ukraine from its natural peacemaking role in the transdniestrian conflict.

Economic Way of Settlement and Its Europeanization

Researchers, observers and participants of the regional conflict settlement process practically unanimously come to the conclusion regarding the inevitability of the Europeanization of the settlement. At the same time, this conclusion is made not in the logic of war according to the principle of "either / or" but rather in the logic of "and / or", when Europeanization just supplements the already available substantial components of settlement. The matter in question is in no way an infringement of the rights of any groups of the population, does not suppose some unilateral privileges being given to other groups, nor any immediate cancellation of the sociocultural distinctiveness or identity of people.

We understand "Europeanization" in the field of conflict settlement as the "process put in action and stimulated by the European institutions and, first of all, the European Union, through tying up the final outcome of the conflict with a certain level of integration of interested parties in the European structures. This tying up shall be carried out by means of specific mechanisms of conditionality and socialization built into the "Europeanization process"14. Europeanization can be specifically expressed both in the form of active participation of the EU in the settlement process and in the form of a "framework structure" of such settlement being developed by the EU. Europeanization is always asymmetric, since the other participants of the settlement process, as a rule, have no institutional mechanisms to influence the position of the European Union.

The European Union is paying increasing attention to the transdniestrian conflict. This is due both to the EU institutional development, and to the change of its policy determined by the accession of new members - poland, Lithuania and Romania for whom the transdniestrian issue is extremely important15.

The EU policy towards moldova-transdniestria is conceptually expressed in the European neighborhood policy which consists of the proposal by the EU of close cooperation to the countries that at present have no prospects to become its members16.

Throughout 6 years, the European Union has come a long way in its involvement in transdniestrian conflict settlement:

ƒ measures taken for the diplomatic blockade of transdniestria - interdiction to issue visas to representatives of transdniestrian authorities - 2003;

ƒ intermediation in the Ukrainian-moldovan negotiations regarding cooperation in border management - 2003;

ƒ formation of the attractive foreign policy alternative of European partnership for moldova, compared to the Russian plan for federalization of a common moldovan state - 2003;

ƒ formation of an attractive foreign policy alternative for moldova, based on European partnership - viz a viz the Russian federalisation plan for a common moldovan state in 2003;

ƒ EU joining the negotiation process as an observer in the "5+2" format in conformity with moldova's invitation - 2005;

ƒ Establishment of the EU special Representative's office in moldova - 2005;

ƒ creation of the EU mission to support border management (EU Border Assistance mission - EUBAm) - 2005.

on the whole, the EU asserted itself as a powerful factor in the process of settlement, a power centre, without which conflict settlement is practically impossible. At the same time, the measures taken have not yet practically led to the desirable outcome, i.e. settlement of the transdniestrian conflict based on the European platform. The attempt to transform moldova into a law-abiding democratic and prospering state that could become attractive for transdniestrian residents has not yet been successful. The measures of the diplomatic and economic blockade of transdniestria appeared to be of low effect. Ukraine's assistance in conflict resolution on a European basis is mainly of a declarative nature. The EUBAm border mission has not brought about the anticipated results, i.e. confirmation of the large scale international crimes ostensibly committed by the transdniestrian elite (smuggled drugs, weapons, trafficked human beings, etc.). The attempt to coordinate and consolidate the EU foreign policy with the foreign policy and rhetoric of the new EU member - Romania concerning the moldova-transdniestria conflict has proved to be ineffective. The EU has not been able to set up constructive cooperation with Russia - an important player in the conflict settlement process.

The EU position and policy are changing - the greater attention paid by the EU to transdniestria itself is very important, as is attention to transdniestria's internal political dynamics, its prospects of negotiating a solution, the loyalty of its business elite in relation to the European model of frozen conflict settlement. The EU is expanding the application of conditionality principle envisaging not only punishment of the transdniestrian elite, but also its motivation, especially with the account of its dependence on the export of goods to the EU countries.

The following issues are also important for us. How far interconnected are the economic path for settlement and its Europeanization? What are advantages and disadvantages of the Europeanization of the settlement process? What is the optimal succession of stages in the Europeanization and settlement?

it is obvious that at the initial stage of settlement, the transdniestrian conflict was on the periphery of EU interests. subsequent steps undertaken by the EU were rather indicative of the dominating political approaches to the settlement. However, with the transdniestrian conflict being in stagnation, while the transdniestrian moldavian Republic was de facto demonstrating its viability, the insufficiency of the political approach became obvious. At the same time, moldova demonstrated political tendencies of crisis, while Ukraine appeared incapable of finalizing its policy of the isolation of transdniestria. The EU displayed interest in the sources of viability of the transdniestrian economy. Economic integration turned out to be the link that can now unite the whole moldo-Black sea region.

Europeanization of transdniestrian settlement may include the following components: 1) consolidation of freedom of economic activities principle in the macro-region; 2) motivation of economic integration and transboundary interaction of economic actors of moldova-transdniestria and the Ukrainian Black sea coast; 3) investment in joint transboundary economic projects by the EU; 4) allocation of direct large financial grants for economic integration in the region; 5) inclusion of parties to the conflict in the euro-integration process as a way to settle the conflict; 6) granting of certain type of euro-integration privileges to the settlement participants.

This is the point when the debatable issue of the sequence of Europeanization and settlement stages arises. The following steps should be decided first of all: should participants to the conflict be granted a certain level of neighbourhood cooperation (integration) with the EU as a favorable condition for the settlement, or, on the contrary, it should be declared that this level of euro-integration is a settlement prize for its participants?17 taking into account the considerably decreased interest of moldova's population to the issue of reintegration, one can say that this interest can completely disappear in case of euro-integration (of the Republic of moldova, in this or that form). This circumstance makes euro-integration of moldova before its reintegration very problematic. As an argument in favour of this way there can be only attractiveness of Right Bank moldova for transdniestria that can be ensured using EU money. However, the way of extending financial grants to depressive countries is not popular with the EU members, which fact can be proven by the example of Bulgaria that, on the contrary, was financially penalized for the inactivity in its combating corruption.

The issue of representation of regional elites' interests can become a serious objection against the economic way of settlement that may not coincide with the interests of Europeanization. The economic way of conflict resolution, economic freedom and integration on the macro-regional level will considerably lower the importance of political elites of the states in the region and can generate subregional business elites that may underestimate both political sovereignty of the national states and the role of political elites of these states. today the public in moldova-transdniestria and Ukraine is raising the issue of excessive impact of financial and oligarchic clans, their disproportionate and shadow influence on political processes in the region and the situation with national economies and consciousness of the masses in Ukraine, moldova and transdniestria. The "economic approach" to the settlement can make these unattractive actors the major subjects of settlement, which might have an unpredictable outcome for democracy in the region.

Both from the point of view of mass consciousness corrupted by political populism and from the point of view of struggle of the post-soviet elites for spheres of influence, as well as from the point of view of aggravated competition between regional financial and oligarchic clans, the economic approach to the conflict settlement as the major one raises the issue of large scale redistribution of property, as well as the principles and rules of such redistribution. This principle, most likely, will be based on the principle "the bigger absorbs the smaller one". not everyone likes such a prospect. There appear groups of interests that do not support any form of transboundary economic integration that threatens their well-being and their existence as such. The existing economic risks and political fear operates like a cumulative mechanism, strengthening manifold the opposition to conflict settlement and economic integration.

The main argument in favor of Europeanization is the European advantages related to economic freedom and a high standard of living. These failsafe arguments can become weighty precisely as a result of implementing the program of ‘economizing' the conflict settlement process. This is the case when politicians and oligarchs are running a risk, while small and average businesses are getting a chance. socially and economically dependent groups of the population will go through this polarization: some of them will want to have a dependable and kind owneremployer, while others will go through the syndrome of "fleeing from freedom", being afraid of intensification of their labour activity, pension age increase and denial of habitual social privileges and benefits.

Europeanization in the interpretation of the post-soviet propagandists having been educated at the marxism-Leninism universities appears as a stereotypic version of the "bright future", a kind of reincarnated communism in which "everyone will get as much as one needs". The appalling banality of this euro-integrationist propaganda reduces to nothing the advantages of freedom of information and speech, of independent and competent opinion.

Europeanization of conflict settlement is certainly not free of its shortcomings. The traditional type of economic life based on orthodox traditions and practically slave-type relations including social and economic dependency and parasitism will be overcome. The romanticism of this way of living and its aesthetics will also disappear. macro-region cities can and will live better, but they will cease to be Byzantian "capitals" with their parades, presidents and "courts". many citizens will have their feelings and pride hurt by this.

The European Union has not yet developed a policy in relation to the Russian-speaking population of the former soviet Empire. This is a very serious shortcoming, which means for this population a loss of their uniqueness (the "Baltic syndrome").

Europeanization is accompanied by such illnesses as migration, degradation of the social sphere, marginalization of the part of the population characterized by low adaptability to the new lifestyle.

However, this can be balanced by the aspiration for higher level and better quality of life, appearance of a new European identity, human rights protection system, guarantees of safety and freedom from corruption and, eventually, cancellation of the hated borders. in other words, a new and different life ... for a new and different people.

advantages and disadvantages of the europeanization of Transdniestrian Conflict settlement

advantages

disadvantages

Establishment of European quality of life standards for the population

Loss of socio-cultural and language identity by a considerable part of the population

European human rights standards

Degradation of the historically developed type of economic life based on orthodox traditions

Guarantees of European security in the region

Lower level of individual identity by the peripheral states-participants of the settlement process, loss of a part of their sovereignty

Reduction of corruption

Decreased social level of a considerable part of the population incapable of socialization in the

European context

Freedom of movement in Europe

Larger labour migration of the population

Advent of a European identity

"Brain drain" (scientists, doctors)

Expansion of European culture

Degradation of the social sphere (education, medicine) along the lines of the ‘new' European countries

From the point of view of south Ukrainian experts, the major tool of Eurointegration and socialization of participants to the transdniestrian conflict settlement process is transboundary cooperation. This idea is reflected in Ukraine's national program of integration in the EU approved in september 2000 and reflected in Ukraine's Law on transboundary cooperation adopted on June 24, 2002

What is amazing is the fact that transboundary cooperation is practically localized only on the Western borders of Ukraine and is practically frozen on its southern borders, i.e. with nAto members - turkey and Romania and friendly moldova-transdniestria. The reason for this situation is latent conflicts between Ukraine and these countries, with the EU in no way contributing to the resolution of these conflicts.

on the other hand, in the most southern Ukrainian regions, organization of transbound-

ary cooperation is a responsibility of the offices for international cooperation within regional administrations that have been created and are functioning practically following the soviet lines and rather blocking than promoting this cooperation. in modern Ukraine there has appeared something that can be possibly called a Window to Europe that is located on the Ukrainian-polish border. This is the place where modern European models of transboundary cooperation are being created. The border in the south of Ukraine is of an absolutely different nature and with its own different aims.


Conglomerate Societies in the Macro-region and the Economic Path of Moldova-Transdniestria Conflict Settlement

considering the prospects and benefits of economic integration in the macro-region (moldo-

va-transdniestria, Ukrainian Black sea coast), it is important to distinguish in the developed subregions the ambivalence of the existing societies consisting of two components - globalistpostmodern and traditionalist-patriarchal. "modern societies become similar to a, let us say, conglomerate with two enclaves coexisting within it. The first one "encloses" everything modern and post-modern - it is a "globalization chamber". The second one is something that is carefully protected, taken care of and cherished as it is traditional, indigenous and dear," writes a well known expert in international relations A. Bogaturov18. Economic integration in the odessa macro-region ("Danube" Euroregion) includes both of these components, but to different degrees and in different styles.

in our works devoted to the internal political dynamics in transdniestria19, we note the

functioning of these two enclaves in transdniestria. interaction and relationships between the ruling regime and business has become one of the major political issues in conglomeratic societies. Both in Ukraine and in the Right Bank moldova and transdniestria, these relations are, to a greater or lesser extent, full of fights and problems. Financial and oligarchic clans are in charge in Ukraine, with the government only just embarking on the process of suppression of oligarchy according to putin's model, and establishing masterdom over the oligarchic clans. Right Bank moldova is characterized by the domination of the government, while transdniestria has created a scheme of mutual penetration of interests of the authorities and business and of positional turf war for influence which takes place out of the public eye. it would be a mistake and a simplification to draw a conclusion that only one of the parties to these domination-subordination disputes can be a possessor of the idea of macro-regional economic integration. Actually, both parties are loyal to such integration due to the motives of their own participation and implementation of their ideology of such integration.

The necessary conditions for economic integration in the macro-region can be as follows: 1) guarantees of mutual recognition of ownership rights of the business elites participating in economic integration (this is particularly true for the transdniestrian property and the property located on transdniestrian territory); 2) preservation of the conglomerate nature of subregions, including transdniestria, i.e. guarantee of preservation of the political class of "traditionalists"; 3) propagation of the European model of mutual relations between the government and business; formation of modern management of strategic regional development.

We are proceeding from the fact that macro-region's societies will for a long time continue keeping the outlines of conglomerate societies and the problem of interaction of globalist and traditional principles will persist in the foreseeable future. This coexistence crystallizes very vividly in the political design of regional societies - in transdniestria it is a combination of the "star of sheriff*" as a globalist logo and the Red star as a logo of the soviet times.

Dividends of Peace and Economic Integration

The major result of Ukrainian participation in the macro-regional economic integration is competitiveness generated in the new entity and the new market. presently, the regions under consideration are noncompetitive. Their competitive potential can manifest itself only in the conditions of economic integration and prospering transboundary cooperation based on the new pan-European basis.

* A diversified transdniestrian commercial group with a strong retail brand presence

We understand competitiveness of the region as a European model, as ability of the region to ensure rather high life standards for the population with criteria of this kind of competitiveness being labour migration and inflow of investments to the region. By the definition of the organization for Economic cooperation and Development (oEcD), a competitive region is, "the one that can attract and support successful companies and ensure higher life standards for the residents in the region. skilled labour and investments try to "flee" from non-competitive regions to more competitive ones."20

The idea of competitiveness consists in the fact that a region is based upon clusters, or groups of enterprises united not due to their political belonging to this or that state but according to geographical and economic principles, complementing each other and forming around themselves a pool of providers of different services. The agrarian Right Bank moldova, industrial transdniestria and Ukrainian Black sea coast ports very well supplement each other forming a uniform macro-region. clusterization of the odessa macro-region shows an economic integration vector - from the West to the East, from Right Bank moldova, via transdniestria, to the Ukrainian Black sea coast.

The criteria for the evaluation of competitiveness of regions in the macro-region that is being presently formed should be like those included in the European competitiveness index21 calculated for some regions and countries of Europe. The calculations are made according to 40 factors that are grouped as five categories: creativity, economic efficiency, infrastructure and accessibility, employment in the knowledge sector of economy and education. creativity is estimated as the number of those employed in research, development and design jobs per 1000 persons of the population; expenses for R&D per capita; number of applications for the obtainment of patents per 1 million persons, number of persons employed in the information and communication services sector per 1000 people.

When estimating the competitiveness of our regions, we can see the historical basis that can support economic integration and modernization. These are, first of all, the traditional economic structure and householding type inherent both in moldova-transdniestria and in the south of Ukraine. Here is also included a combination of the agrarian-oriented and industrially-oriented regions supplementing each other. The high level of local communities' consolidation and their solidarity with local authorities is also important. intensity of communications in the region also plays an important role.

The regional revival mechanisms are well-known. They include new leadership, Europeanization of mentality (standards and strategic planning), as well as the international legal system of transboundary cooperation.

The dividends of peace and economic integration include: formation in the regions of the middle class, holder of the European values; creation of a high standard of living based on the European standards; creation of new jobs and reduction of labour migration.

dividends of Peace and advantage of Competitiveness in the Formation of the odessa Macro-region

directions

right Bank Moldova

Transdniestria

Ukrainian Black sea Coast

Historical basis (structure)

strong type of traditional householding adapted to local conditions

Developed agrarian sector

of economy (especially winemaking)

commanding influence of authorities

Developed industrial sector

consolidated territorial solidarity in the region

Developed transport network (seaports, pipelines, railways, highways, etc.).

traditionally high level of communication with moldovan regions

mechanisms of integration and

economic development

investment in agriculture and processing industry (first of all, in winemaking)

Development of common standards and statistics

common strategic planning

investments in industrial production, development of new technologies

overcoming of obstacles in foreign trade activities of the enterprises

Development of common standards and statistics

common strategic planning

Formation of new regional

elite

modernization of transport networks

Development of common standards and statistics

common strategic planning

peace and integration dividends

considerable growth of export opportunities and export of winemaking products

creation of new jobs

Formation of the middle class - advocate of

European standards and way of life

considerable growth of export opportunities and export of goods manufactured by industrial enterprises creation of new jobs

Formation of the middle class - advocate of

European standards and way of life

Growth of economic efficiency of the transport sector

Formation of "smart borders" in the region

Formation of the middle class -advocate of the European standards in the way of life and regional consciousness

The Ukrainian government, being guided by the idea of ensuring equal opportunities to all the citizens of Ukraine, irrespective of the place they live, will aim its policy at the creation of the odessa macro-region without being afraid of any destructive political consequences.

The interests of the stakeholders from Kyiv participating in the development of policy for regional development have practically no overlap with the interests of the regions. Their purpose is to deplete the regions, to direct financial flows via Kyiv, via "their own" banks, to make a rule that large enterprises open their representation offices in Kyiv and effect their most important transactions there. The customs predominating in the corridors of power can be illustrated through the fact that when resolving the issue of connection of the new building of the Kherson University and the new ice palace in Kherson to the electricity grid (placing the technical order), we found out that neither the regional authorities, nor the Regional Energy office could issue a respective decision or sign the respective documents. Local authorities unanimously say that such issues are resolved only in Kyiv. The present government is concerned only about creation of the "Kyiv shopfront" and neglects the interests of the regions, arranging a huge redistributive Field of Wonders in Kyiv with regions completely dependant on capital subventions, on tranches allocated by officials as prizes for "correct political behaviour". The present government is indifferent to regional transboundary development.

The process of regional communities' consolidation, without which it is impossible to mobilize internal resources for the revival of the macro-region, presents a big difficulty. This kind of territorial community consolidation, on the territory artificially delineated by Bolsheviks into regions (oblasts) is impossible. The most important condition for consolidation is going beyond the boundaries of regional division and formation of natural territorial communities on the territory having a common historical past and a common economic complex (clusters), affinity of a socio-cultural nature (language, traditions, mentality, character, behaviour patterns, etc.). The Dniester / nistru - Dnipro macro-region (odessa macro-region) can become a format for the new territorial community, a new European macro-region.

A specific feature of the odessa macro-region is the domination of the Russian language in economic communication. This takes into consideration the Russian language's potential in the region, its prevalence. According to the international agency "Eurasian monitor", having held a survey of prevalence of the Russian language in 2007, those fluently speaking, writing and reading in Russian make 70% of the Ukrainian population, another 13% can fluently speak and read but are writing with mistakes. in Right Bank moldova - 51% of the population fluently speaks Russian and another 19% fluently speaks and reads but writes with mistakes22. According to the survey held by the Eurasian monitor those fluently speaking Russian in transdniestria make 62% and another 31% can fluently speak, but write with mistakes23. The Russian language has for a long time been the key language for the experts involved in the transdniestrian settlement and regional cooperation. it is necessary to take into consideration the variability of political development scenarios of regionalism in the area of moldova-transdniestria and Ukrainian Black sea coast. several options are possible moving forward:

ƒ creation of the "Dniester / nistru" Euroregion or odessa macro-region in the specified area and implementation of the European model of regionalism;

ƒ Economic integration is localized in the form of the creation of transnational cartels, holdings, corporations and in the conditions of formation of neutral status of the states in the region does not result in the formation of effective transboundary forms of integration;

ƒ Economic interaction and transboundary cooperation does not become transformed into integration, does not result in the creation of supranational structures and shall be subject to a low level stagnation;

ƒ Rejection by the states in the region of economic interpenetration, preservation of the Frozen conflict, relapses of economic embargoes, violation of economic freedoms, tendency towards isolationism and economic depression.

The uniqueness of the future macro-region is associated with a complex interconnection of geopolitical interests of the power centers on its territory: the UsA, Russia, EU and other countries. The effect of these interests can both slow down and speed up formation of the odessa macro-region.

Conclusions and Recommendations

The major conclusion that we made as a result of our analysis of the situation existing in the region24 is that economic integration and cooperation are invariant in relation to any other settlement issues. The Frozen status of the transdniestrian conflict, its stagnation, the lengthy duration of the existing economic freedom restrictions, negatively affects the economy and the social well-being of the population. The conflict in moldova-transdniestria is a source of economic complications not only for moldova-transdniestria, but also for Ukraine, that, in fact, has incurred huge, multimillion losses from the imposing of new customs rules on the transdniestrian segment of the Ukrainian border.

Economic integration of moldova-transdniestria would be an incomplete and insufficient way out of the existing situation. Reintegration of moldova in the narrow sense of this word does not take into consideration some points, the first being the context of the existing moldovan-Ukrainian and transdniestrian-Ukrainian economic cooperation, the second - the complementary nature of the regional economy of Right Bank moldova, transdniestria and the Ukrainian Black sea coast, the third one - mutual acceptability of economic integration of the south of Ukraine with Right Bank moldova and transdniestria as opposed to reintegration in the narrow sense of the word.

The most effective and mutually acceptable macroeconomic format for the powerful economic integration process could be the formation of the odessa (Dniester / nistru - Black sea coast) macro-region based on an essentially new level of transboundary cooperation in the Dniester / nistru river basin and the Ukrainian Black sea coast.

The possible name of "odessa macro-region" could be acceptable for the conflicting parties and would strengthen the regional role of Ukraine. odessa, the largest city in the macro-region, mother of peculiar economic and commercial culture, is an attractive cultural, intellectual and economic centre in the macro-region where people come from all corners of the macro-region to recreate themselves, do shopping, study and carry on business.

The existing practice of formal transboundary cooperation can be overcome only in a legal way, ensuring an upgraded legislative framework both for transboundary cooperation as a whole and for the formation of the odessa macro-region in particular. These laws should define the priority of the integrated territorial approach versus the notorious chain of command (administration in the economic sphere).

creation of a single information and statistics centre for the macro-region's development could become a good start for integration. it is not steel but information that is the main issue for economic integration today. This integrated centre could be created under an arrangement between moldova, transdniestria and Ukraine and agreed in the "5+2" format with other participants of the negotiation process. The EU countries could render financial and expert assistance ensuring Europeanization in the creation of the common information and statistical system for the infrastructural development of the territory. it is necessary to have common criteria for the economic development evaluation, fixing of statistic standards and creation of a joint database of comparative statistical data on the macro-region.

A major step towards the creation of an integrated economy of the macro-region could become a strategy of its development for the period of 2008 through 2028. This strategy could define the principles and directions of rapprochement of the economies in the regions (countries), as well as goals and methods of assurance of the macro-region's sustainable development. Development of such a strategy could become a joint project for economic institutions of odessa, tiraspol and chisinau supported by the EU grant (transboundary cooperation).

Attention should be focused on the Leadership school for regional elites. Unfortunately, the existing regional elites in the southern regions of Ukraine and, possibly, in the adjacent border regions of moldova-transdniestria are not capable of leading the development of the regions towards better life; they have neither sufficient education nor sufficient will, interest or necessary abilities. The creation of such a Regional Leadership school could become a mega project for the third sector of our countries.

For the successful promotion of the idea of economic integration in the macro-region it is necessary to work out and adapt economic development models: regional differentiation of credit and tax policy, support of special economic zones and depressive regions etc.

it would be expedient to create in the macro region a standing Annual moldovan Economic Forum devoted to the issues of transboundary cooperation, creation of the economic macro-region and modernization of its economy. The moldovan Economic Forum would become a platform for creative activity of economists in the region, a place for sharing ideas and information between economists and managers of moldova-transdniestria and Ukraine. The Forum's products could be used by the policy-making agencies and economic policy entities in the macro-region. At the same time, it would perform the role of public mobilizer towards settlement of regional problems, attraction of investors and training of regional elites in the issues of macro-regional management. The Forum could be held alternatively in odessa, chisinau, tiraspol, Kherson and mykolaiv.

5 october 2008, Kherson Bibliography

1. Denis de Roujmont. Europe in the Game. chance for Europe. tabula rasa for Europeans, Lviv, Humanitarian studies center of the Lviv state University named After i. Franc, 1998, p. 239

2. A.D. Rotfeld Where Does the World Go? Determinants of changes in the international system//Europe. Journal of the polish institute of international Affairs. v. 8. no 1 (26). 2008, http://www.pism.pl/zalaczniki/Europa26Rotfeld.pdf, pp. 59-60

3. Denis de Roujmont. Europe in the Game. chance for Europe. tabula rasa for Europeans, Lviv, Humanitarian studies center of the Lviv state University named After i. Franc, 1998, pp. 228-230

4. t.s. Guzenkova moldova and transdniestria: Development problems and trends//Republic of moldova: modern Development trends. General editing by E.m. Kozhokin, phD in History, Russian institute of strategic studies, 2004, p. 350

5. Regional Ukraine, «Geoprint», 2003, p. 211-235, 301-313

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8. Foreign policy. Globalization index Rankings. 2007 // http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_ id=4030&print=1

9. World Economic Forum. Global information technology Report 2007-2008// http://www.weforum.org/pdf/gitr/2008/ Rankings.pdf

10.transparency international. The Global coalition against corruption// http://www.transparency.org.ru/doc/cpi%20 2008_press%20release_Rus1_01000_278.pdf

11.transdniestria in macro regional context of the Black sea coast, collected Works, science Editor Kimitaka matsuzato. slavic Eurasian studies no. 18. slavic Research center, Hokkaido University, 2008. - p. 174

12.transdniestria in macro regional context of the Black sea coast, collected Works, science Editor Kimitaka matsuzato.

slavic Eurasian studies no. 18. slavic Research center, Hokkaido University, 2008, pp. 180-181

13.idem, p. 187

14.Europeanization and resolution of conflicts: case studies of the European periphery. Bruno coppieters, michael Emerson et alia m.: publishing House of Ves mir, 2005, pp. 27-28

15.E. posel-czescik. Role of the European Union in the transdniestrian conflict Resolution // Europe. Journal of the polish institute of international Affairs. v. 5. no 4 (17). 2005, p. 61

16.idem, pp. 60-64

17.Europeanization and resolution of conflicts: case studies of the European periphery. Bruno coppieters, michael Emerson et alia m.: publishing House of Ves mir, 2005, p. 283

18.A. Bogaturov, state and Business in conglomerate society// international processes. Journal of Theory of international Relations and Global policy. Volume 5, no 2 (14), may-August, 2007 - http://www.intertrends.ru/sixteenth/012. htm

19.Vladimir Korobov, Georg Byanov. The ' Renewal ' of transdniestria. //Journal of communist studies and transition politics (FJcs), Vol. 22, no. 4, December 2006, pp. 517-528. issn 1352-3279, print/1743-9116 online Doi: 10.1080 / 13523270601019581 © 2006 taylor and Francis. Korobov V. K., Byanov G. n. improvements in the Dniester Region: to change or to possess? - Kherson, center for the Research of the south Ukrainian Border Zone, publishing house of naddnipryanochka, 2006, p. 28

20.competitiveness of Ukrainian Regions: state and problems. Analytical study of Razumkov center.// national security and Defense, no 4, 2008, p. 39

21.European competitiveness index// http://www.hugginsassociates.com/

22.Russian Language in the new independent states: complex Research outcomes. Under the editorship of E.B. Yatsenko, E.V. Kozievskaya, K.A. Gavrilova, corporate author - K.A.Gavrilov et alia. m.: Eurasia Heritage Foundation, 2008, p. 113.

23.interview with E.m. Bobkova, Director of the sociological centre "new Age", implementers of the "Eurasian monitor" survey in 2007 in transdniestria

24.V,К. Korobov, n.A. Gomanuk, public perception in the south of Ukraine of the situation and Development prospects of the unrecognized transdniestrian moldavian Republic//national minorities and interethnic Relations: European tradition and Experience of new Democracies for moldova. Volume i, state University of moldova, center for political Analysis and social technologies of cAptEs coordinated by professor Valeriu mosneaga. - iasi: pan Europe, 2002. p. 107-119, V.К. Korobov, n.A. Gomanuk, public perception of the situation and Development prospects of the unrecognized transdniestrian moldavian Republic in Kherson//sustainable Development strategy: modern World - transdniestrian, scientific publication of tsspi - perspektiva, tiraspol: 2003. p. 91 - 100. V.К. Korobov, G.n. Byanov Federalization of moldova - Looking for the Ways to settle transdniestrian conflict//transdniestrian statehood in the context of modern international Experience of Federalism: scientific publication of tsspi - perspektiva, tiraspol: 2003. p. 152-155. V.К. Korobov, n.A. Gomanuk, transdniestrian Theme in pre-Election presidential campaign of 2004 in Ukraine//transdniestrian statehood: History and modernity. - tiraspol: publishing House of the transdniestrian University, 2005, p. 70-77. V.K. Korobov, public opinion of Residents of the Kherson oblast Regarding Development of cooperation in the southern Regions of Ukraine and transdniestria//transdniestrian statehood: History and modernity. - tiraspol: publishing House of the transdniestrian University, 2005 p. 214-219. V.К. Korobov, G. n. Byanov, Ukrainization of the peace-making process: prospects and Directions for the increase of Ukraine's Role in the transdniestrian settlement//international Law and modern World Realities. transdniestrian moldavian Republic as an Established state. scientific publication of tsspi - perspektiva. tiraspol: 2006. - p. 257-261. Wolodymyr Korobov. struktura i znaczenie interesov Ukrainy w naddniestrzu i w regione//Konflikt niskiej intensywnosci w naddniestrzu. pod redakcja m.celewicza, J.Kloczowskiego, m.pietrasia. instytut Europy srodkowo-Wschodniej. Zaklad stosunkow miedzynarodowych Wydzialu politologii Universytetu marii curie-sklodowskiej. Lublin, 2006.- p. 141-146.


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